CHCS - Center for Health Care Strategies

Improving the quality and cost-effectiveness of publicly financed health care

Welcome to the ROI Forecasting Calculator

Medicaid presents tremendous opportunities to demonstrate the business case for improving health care quality. Of the more than 60 million people served under Medicaid, adults with disabilities and chronic conditions represent only one quarter of the population, while consuming nearly 70 percent of Medicaid’s resources. Investing in programs that more effectively manage the care of these high-risk, high-cost beneficiaries can improve health outcomes, reduce unnecessary utilization, and control Medicaid expenditures. This investment can ensure greater value for every Medicaid dollar spent, while providing the highest quality of care for those who need it most.

To help Medicaid stakeholders assess and demonstrate a return on investment (ROI) from projects to improve quality in health care, the Center for Health Care Strategies (CHCS) developed the ROI Calculator for Quality Initiatives ( For more information about CHCS please visit our primary website at

Help buttons Help Button are provided within the Calculator to assist you in developing a forecast. For additional tips and best practices, a User’s Guide is also available.

To complete an ROI forecast, you will need to provide the following information:
  • Clinical focus
  • Intervention strategies
  • Timeframe/duration of initiative
  • Target Population
  • Targeted population subgroups
  • Disease prevalence among target groups
  • Expected enrollment rate
  • Risk stratification
  • Utilization
  • Average 12 month baseline costs for intervention group members
  • Trend (expected growth in claims costs)
  • Anticipated utilization changes resulting from initiative
  • Program Costs
  • Estimated costs of launching and operating the initiative
  • Discount Rate
  • Organizational cost of capital
  • Development of the ROI Forecasting Calculator has been supported by a
    grant from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

    Version 1.1 
    Copyright © 2007 Center for Health Care Strategies, Inc.
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